More delays.
Rossi has had a pattern of delays and excuses why tests are not done and customers are not revealed, similar to other customers such as Defkalion. These patterns frequently result in nothing of consequence. The only significant exception with Andrea Rossi has been the TPI report of May / 2013.
With the latest rumors of delay around the next ITP report, we’re going to have to reduce the probability of Rossi being real to 28%. General thoughts here at rossiisreal HQ is that there may be some ambiguity in the results that the researchers are having trouble digesting and so are delaying the report until they figure them out. We estimate this at about 60% chance.
The other possibility (40% chance) is that they believe they have seen spectacular results and they need to get their ducks in a row because it’s going to attract a lot of attention and their reputations are all on the line.
We are also basing this update on more focused discussion of the 1 MW installation that Rossi has been stressing. He seems to be diverting attention away from the reports, which may because he’s concerned those results aren’t favorable.
If we see confirmation of this delay to September (say nothing by mid July), we will likely reduce the probability to 25% that Rossi is Real.
If a report comes out before that date, be warned – you could potentially see a massive swing upwards to 50% or even 60% that Rossi is Real. This report has the potential of being a very significant inflection point in this Andrea Rossi / E-Catelyzer Saga.
We recently increased the % chance that Rossi is real to 40% based on some bullish statements from scientists (see here: http://www.nyteknik.se/asikter/debatt/article3830568.ece Use Google translate.)
But we’ve decided to reduce it back to 30% based on Rossi’s statement “In Mercato Veritas”. (http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=3#comment-962719) “In the market, truth”
Our reasoning is that if he was confident that the reports were going to be positive, than why would he worry too much about what the market thinks? He’d have a scientific report that would prove out quite a bit.
One possibility is that he’s preparing everyone to start looking towards his marketed product rather than the scientific report.
Also, the lack of leaking has me surprised. This is (theoretically) a world changing technology. We would expect more would be revealed / leaked at this point if it was serious advancement.
Is Andrea Rossi for real? 