Probability now 9%

Based on the following facts:

• Lugano report is being dismissed due to incorrect emissivity readings:  https://gsvit.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/tpr2-calorimetry-of-hot-cat-performed-by-means-of-ir-camera-2/
• Parkhomov seems unable to replicate his one successful experiment.  He also appears to be irrational by performing these experiments inside cramped living quarters and exposing his family to such things as run away reactions.

Parkhomov’s lack of credibility was not a particular concern to me.   What I felt was very concerning was the lack of skepticism shown by others in analyzing his results.

I believe the probability is low enough that I can put this blog into cold storage and do not need to follow Andrea Rossi any longer unless something very surprising occurs.

Probability of Rossi is real is now 19%

From NC Department of Health:

The report posted to www.freeenergyscams.com is in fact a copy of an original report from my office.  Please note that the allegation number should be labeled 2015-01 instead of 2014-01 because the investigation was the first one finalized in 2015.  Anything stated within the report findings was in context to an allegation investigation of radioactive material being utilized in North Carolina.

The investigators documented what was said and observed.  They reported what was communicated to them by Mr. Vaughn, but left out additional descriptive language that followed the statement of credibility.

From Vaughn:

Industrial Heat, LLC has learned of a report confirming the absence of any radioactive materials in our facilities. While the conclusion was sensible — there was no evidence of radioactive material at our site — the report went on to make other observations beyond the scope of the investigation.

Industrial Heat has invested in energy technologies in their early stages of development. ‎We have a long term strategy of spending our resources on ideas which might or might not be successful in the market. We do this because the world still needs new, clean and efficient energy sources. We remain committed to supporting technologies that will reduce the environmental impact of producing energy and raise the standard of‎ living in developing countries.

Industrial Heat acquired certain rights to Andrea Rossi’s LENR technology. The company continues to support Dr. Rossi’s research and development, and we are hopeful that our funding can lead to new discoveries. Since the acquisition, there has been no departure from our support for this project, or any other projects.

Any suggestions of the views of Industrial Heat, apart from those described here, do not reflect the views of Industrial Heat or its staff.

Our take on this at RossiIsReal headquarters is that Vaughn really said something disparaging about Rossi and is now trying to pretend he never said it.   Why?  We’re not entirely sure, but we are leaning (about 70% probability) that he’s doing it for legal / his own credibility reasons.  Either he’s on an NDA or he doesn’t want future investors to lose faith in his ability to avoid con men.

Another possibility is that he was trying to discourage the investigator from following up.  This explanation is a bit tricky to believe.  In the quote above he uses the statement “LENR”, which is short for Low Energy Nuclear Reactions.

If he was trying to discourage further investigation that was absolutely the wrong thing to say.

Unfortunately MFMP broke their camera before they could back up their emissivity investigation.   We are going to wait for Levi et al to reply to that.   If they don’t come up with a sufficient explanation, we are going to reduce probability to 10%.

Probability now 35% based on allegations of Fraud

I’m going to decrease the probability on this fairly dramatic news.

http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/11/24/prometeon-srl-addresses-e-cat-licensee-status/

Much of it sounds like unkept promises from Andrea Rossi to real partners.   Blowing smoke at competitors is one thing, but not following through on commitments to those who sign contracts with you is completely another.

In many ways, if the allegations are true, this is a confirmation of many of the things being said about Andrea Rossi as a cheat and a liar.

Also, over time I will likely decrease this probability.  This probability will likely declined about 5% every 3 months unless significantly positive news is produced.

Probability is now 45%

Analyzing the probability that Rossi is real is a complex problem.   A lot of credible researchers rely on their experience with past experiments and correlating it with what Rossi has observed.   This is an approach which is far superior to mine, unfortunately these credible researchers refuse to use their expertise to express their confidence numerically even though such a perspective has been shown to be hugely useful for policy makers everywhere.   In an ideal world, I would just use a weighted average of what they believe, rather than my own inferior attempt.

Unfortunately, this is not an ideal world.   So if you see volatility in these estimates it is because of my lack of insight, not necessarily because the facts are changing significantly on the ground.   That being said, we are in a somewhat volatile time – at least from my perspective.   New actors are coming out of the woodwork and are risking their careers on betting that Rossi is Real.

In particular, Magnus Olofsson, CEO Elforsk
http://www.nyteknik.se/asikter/debatt/article3854541.ece

For that reason, I’m increasing the probability that Rossi is Real to 45%.    If we see similar statements of excitement from credible actors willing to risk their reputation in this way, expect to see even more volatility in the numbers.

Exciting times!

Probability now 20%

The report is out and the players are the same.   In order for it to have any credibility at all, new and credible investigators needed to come into play.   The fact that they did not, in my opinion, points to a dearth of anyone who is willing to stick their neck out for Andrea Rossi.   It’s also unlikely that the USPTO will accept this report as evidence.   It appears that it is not even going to make it on to arxiv, a preprint repository that generally will accept anything.   It’s a damning statement if even they won’t accept this paper.

It is a shame, to be honest.   I had been excited about this report and what it might inspire.   Perhaps Andrea Rossi / IH is playing it coy here, hard to say.   But frankly, to what end?   He already has IH in his pocket, why bother producing this paper by the same actors?

Note:  If the paper does make it on to arxiv, I’ll raise the probability back up to 35%.

Probability is now 27%

More delays.

Rossi has had a pattern of delays and excuses why tests are not done and customers are not revealed, similar to other customers such as Defkalion.  These patterns frequently result in nothing of consequence.  The only significant exception with Andrea Rossi has been the TPI report of May / 2013.

Probability Rossi is Real is now 28%

With the latest rumors of delay around the next ITP report, we’re going to have to reduce the probability of Rossi being real to 28%.  General thoughts here at rossiisreal HQ is that there may be some ambiguity in the results that the researchers are having trouble digesting and so are delaying the report until they figure them out.   We estimate this at about 60% chance.

The other possibility (40% chance) is that they believe they have seen spectacular results and they need to get their ducks in a row because it’s going to attract a lot of attention and their reputations are all on the line.

We are also basing this update on more focused discussion of the 1 MW installation that Rossi has been stressing.  He seems to be diverting attention away from the reports, which may because he’s concerned those results aren’t favorable.

If we see confirmation of this delay to September (say nothing by mid July), we will likely reduce the probability to 25% that Rossi is Real.

If a report comes out before that date, be warned – you could potentially see a massive swing upwards to 50% or even 60% that Rossi is Real.    This report has the potential of being a very significant inflection point in this Andrea Rossi  / E-Catelyzer Saga.

Rossi is now at 30%

We recently increased the % chance that Rossi is real to 40% based on some bullish statements from scientists (see here: http://www.nyteknik.se/asikter/debatt/article3830568.ece Use Google translate.)

But we’ve decided to reduce it back to 30% based on Rossi’s statement “In Mercato Veritas”. (http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=3#comment-962719)   “In the market, truth”

Our reasoning is that if he was confident that the reports were going to be positive, than why would he worry too much about what the market thinks?   He’d have a scientific report that would prove out quite a bit.

One possibility is that he’s preparing everyone to start looking towards his marketed product rather than the scientific report.

Also, the lack of leaking has me surprised.  This is (theoretically) a world changing technology.   We would expect more would be revealed / leaked at this point if it was serious advancement.